Beat the Elo

Choosing which chess opening lines to learn is hard. There are thousands of variations, and it is impossible to know which ones are truly worth your time at your level. What if you could identify the lines that are statistically most likely to lead to wins — not in general, but against players at your Elo?

Beat the Elo does exactly that. It analyses millions of real games from Lichess to calculate outcome probabilities for opening lines at your rating and game speed, assuming you play the optimal moves within a chosen depth. The result is a personalised opening repertoire built from what actually works at your level.

In a standard openings database (such as Lichess Explorer), the win/draw/loss rates shown for a move reflect the actual outcomes of all games that continued from that position — whoever was playing, whatever moves followed.

Beat the Elo is different. The outcomes shown are calculated assuming you always make the optimal move on subsequent turns, up to a depth controlled by the Impact filter. This means the statistics reflect what you can expect to achieve if you study and play the recommended lines, rather than the average result across all players.

Each row shows the move in algebraic notation, a W / D / L bar with win, draw, and loss rates at your rating (assuming optimal play on your part), an engine evaluation in pawns (coloured green → red), and the frequency with which that move is played at your level. Click a row to play the move on the board.

Use the W / D / L outcome bar as your primary guide — if you are playing White, pick the move with the most white in the bar; if you are playing Black, pick the move with the most black. The engine evaluation can help you assess whether an advantage is objectively sound or relies on opponents making mistakes.

When thinking about what your opponent is likely to play, sort by By Frequency to see the most common responses, and focus your preparation on those lines first.

First, check the Repertoires section above for any existing analyses. If one matches your time control and rating, click it to activate move recommendations on the board.

If no matching repertoire exists, click the + button to run a new analysis. Choose your game speed and Lichess rating, then click Start Analysis. The analysis runs in the background and the repertoire will appear automatically when complete.

You do not need to play on Lichess to use this webapp — the ratings are simply used to select games from the right skill bracket. Use the Lichess rating that best matches your level for the time control you want to study. Lichess ratings tend to run higher than FIDE or Chess.com equivalents. If you are unsure, the rating comparison tool can help you find an equivalent.

Click any move in the recommendations panel to play it on the board, or grab and drag pieces directly on the board.

Use the Undo and Redo buttons (or ← → arrow keys) to step through moves, and Reset to return to the starting position. Flip board toggles the viewing side. Lichess ↗ opens the current position in the Lichess analysis board.

The Impact filter selects lines by how much each move statistically affects your Elo outcome. All includes every move in the downloaded opening tree. Essential keeps only the moves that matter most, giving you the smallest set to memorise. Narrower filters mean fewer lines to learn, with the trade-off that you are improvising sooner.

In theory, making the optimal move at every turn would push outcomes towards 100% wins — but this requires memorising an impractically large number of positions. In practice, you must choose a depth at which to stop optimising and start improvising.

Note: beyond the last move covered by the Impact filter, outcomes reflect real games where players may have memorised lines or common ideas and themes beyond that point. The opening names shown in the recommendations panel are a useful starting point for researching those positions.

These filters control how objectively sound the included lines need to be, according to engine evaluation.

Dirty — all lines regardless of engine assessment. Effective dirty moves can appear in bullet games where you blunder material, but your opponent often fails to capitalise, and you take the advantage.
Dodgy — lines significantly behind the best engine move; still unsound but narrowing the range of included continuations.
Dubious — lines that are objectively losing and refutable, but can be tricky for opponents to handle accurately over the board.
Playable — includes gambits and sharper lines that are difficult to exploit without precise play, but not yet fully sound.
Solid — covers the healthiest gambits and trappy lines alongside sound positional choices; good long-term reliability.
Strict — only lines within 0.3 pawns of the best engine move. For those who want an objectively sound, master-level repertoire.

Note: the engine filter applies only up to the last move covered by the Impact setting. Beyond that, outcomes are drawn from real games continuing with all types of moves.